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The most prominent rivalry in college football begins Saturday as the Army vs. 2024 Navy competition starts for the 125th time. Here’s what to watch for in the matchup, with On SI offering our updated prediction for the game.
Ohio State vs. Michigan vs. Alabama Auburn, and all the rest are great series in their own right, but this is the only rivalry in college football where every player on the field is willing to give their life for everyone watching and sitting in the stadium.
The sheer pageantry and tradition of the Army-Navy Game is unparalleled in college football, or any other American sport, and in recent years it is also one of the most rivalrous, with eight of the last ten meetings decided by one possession. .
What can we expect when the Black Knights and Midshipmen meet on the same field today?
Here’s what to watch for when Army and Navy meet in this college football classic, with our updated prediction for the 2024 game.
1. On the ground. It’s no secret that Army’s offense runs through the backfield and ranks No. 1 nationally with over 300 yards per game, and quarterback Bryson Daily leads the way with 1,480 yards with his legs and 29 touchdowns, tied with Ashton Jeanty for most in the NCAA.
Navy’s defense has been a weakness this season, ranking 85th out of 134 FBS teams against opponents, giving up over 200 rushing yards in two of three losses, and allowing 4.31 yards per carry all season averaged more than 159 yards per game.
2. Third down. Army comes in fourth nationally with the third-best conversion rate, converting more than 50 percent of its chances, thanks to Daily’s ability to make short-range runs that help this attack control the pace and punish the defense.
Navy is allowing opponents to convert just over 40 percent of their third down opportunities, allowing teams to move the chains on 63 of 156 opportunities, ranking them 82nd nationally in that category.
3. The Navy can throw it. While the Midshipmen aren’t as productive as Army in running the football, and thus aren’t as good at controlling the clock, they can throw the ball better when Blake Horvath works under center.
Horvath has proven capable of playing deep in the vertical game at times, leading the offense to over 200 passing yards in two outings, a key dynamic that helps balance things out alongside Navy’s rushing attack in eighth place.
Army allows nearly 65 percent completion from opposing passers but ranks a respectable 34th in FBS pass defense, allowing just 14 touchdowns while intercepting 17 passes.
Army is a 6.5-point favorite against Navy, according to the updated rules posted on FanDuel Sportsbook for this historic matchup.
FanDuel set the game total at 39.5 points (over -110, under -110).
And it lists the moneyline odds for Army at -220 and for Navy at +180 to win outright.
While it may be a cliché to say that you can “throw away the records” in these types of rivalry games, the fact is that you can. These teams shift into a different mental and physical gear when they play against each other.
Navy fell off the radar a bit after being swept by Notre Dame in a loss that ended its perfect record, but it’s worth remembering that this team can still pack a punch on the floor itself.
And combined with the Midshipmens’ more developed passing acumen than in recent years, that could pose a bigger challenge for the Black Knights’ defense, opening up some throwing lanes to move the chains and provide the expert run-stopping to outsmart the army.
A challenge that naval defenses do not have to worry about, given the limited passing threat of the military.
But the Knights still have an outsized advantage when running the ball against a Navy-run defense that has been a vulnerability against more gifted rushing opponents. And this is the best in the country.
For those who like to gamble, it’s worth noting that the total in this game has been below that number every time for the past ten years. It will happen again.
College Football HQ chooses…
More … Army vs. Navy score prediction based on football model
When: Saturday December 14
Where: Landover, Maryland
Time: 3:00 PM Eastern
TV: CBS Network
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The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.
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